Date: September 22, 2025
Spot Close: 6685.43
VIX: 16+ (Elevated — favors option premium selling and intraday reversion)
Max Pain: 6585
Volume clusters: 6650 ↔️ 6700
IV Rank: Elevated but cooling as Powell’s impact settles in.
🎯 Market Outlook
🟢 Bullish Case
- Trigger: Hold above 6675
- Target 1: 6700 (call wall)
- Target 2: 6710–6720 (extension fuel)
- Invalidation: Break back below 6665
“Buyers don’t need to go far — just defend the top shelf and let gamma gravity do the lifting.”
đź”» Bearish Case
- Trigger: Break below 6660
- Target 1: 6650 (first magnet + liquidity pocket)
- Target 2: 6625 / 6600 (if trend strengthens)
- Invalidation: Recovery above 6675–6680
“If they lose their footing, it’s a quick tumble to 6650 where bears reload.”
🔥
- Tight clustering between 6650–6700 → pinball zone
- Heavy call OI at 6700 = likely magnet/pin unless we see major breakout volume
- Put walls below 6625–6600 offer strong support if flushed
📌 Grandma’s Final Call
“Markets want to pin 6700. But if they slip on the butter (6680), it’s a short stack down to 6650. I’m not fighting gamma this close to expiration — just flipping pancakes at the range edges.”
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