Bearish to Neutral Bias, unless bulls reclaim and hold above 6660.
🧭 Here’s how that breaks down:
📉 Why Bearish?
- Price Below Gamma Flip (6660.5):
This is the zone where dealers sell into strength and buy into weakness. Below it, markets become more fragile and slippery. - Massive Put OI & Volume at 663 → 660:
Implies downside protection is being loaded → traders fear a flush. - GEX Structure (Net Negative):
Net GEX is -174M, showing dealers may need to hedge by selling into weakness (aka increasing pressure). - VIX Elevated (~16+):
Risk pricing still leans cautious. Volatility helps pushes snowball faster once direction is picked.
📍 Neutral Twist
- The market is coiled tightly between high interest strikes like 6640, 6620, 6600 — any move away from this could be met with heavy dealer reaction (hedging).
📈 What Would Flip Bias Bullish?
- Clear breakout above 6660 with momentum, then:
- Bias flips bullish toward 6685–6700.
- Needs follow-through with volume, not a fakeout wick.
🧭 Grandma’s Trading Playbook
⬆️ BULLISH SCENARIO
- Trigger: Reclaim & hold above 6660 (Gamma Flip)
- Magnet: 6670 → 6685
- Stretch Zone: 6700 (would likely be met with heavy resistance from the GEX wall)
📌 Notes: If momentum surges post-lunch or into Powell-related tailwinds, bulls could launch above gamma flip for a push into illiquid upper GEX zones. But watch for volatility spikes and IV crushes.
⬇️ BEARISH SCENARIO
- Trigger: Fail to hold 6640 → crack below 6620
- Magnet: 6605 → 6580 (heavy GEX weight and open interest here)
- Stretch Zone: 6550 (but only if market sentiment collapses)
📌 Notes: This is the cleaner trade today, especially if SPX gets rejected around 6660. GEX + high OI at 6580 makes it a gravitational level on the downside.
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses that may occur from following this information.