🎯 Spot: 6608.73
📍 Max Pain: 6590
With Uncle Jerome Powell stepping up to the mic and Fed rate cut probabilities shifting, here’s the market intel-driven outlook based on the current SPX setup, open interest landscape, and macro context:
🏛️ Macro Context: FOMC & Powell
🎤 Powell Speaking Today (FOMC-related)
- Market currently not pricing in a rate cut for September, but…
- Dovish tone or hint of “inflation progress” could spike cut expectations for November/December
- Hawkish tone (e.g., “higher for longer,” or warnings about wage stickiness) could quickly unwind recent upside
🧠 Market Setup Intel (SPX)
Current Price: 6608.73
- Well above Max Pain (6590) → bulls in control pre-event
- OI stack from 6600–6650 is thick, suggesting upside gets sticky unless Powell sparks fresh fuel
🔥 IF Powell Is Dovish:
- 🟢 Melt-up scenario
- Break above 6625 → 6650 → 6675
- IV crush + call side imbalance could cause dealer chasing / delta hedging
- Risk: rapid exhaustion / fade once short-term calls go ITM and profit taking kicks in
🧊 IF Powell Is Hawkish:
- 🔻 Fast drop likely
- Break below 6590 opens path to 6550 → 6525
- Put side OI is light compared to call side, which amplifies downside
- Could trigger “gamma trap” where dealers sell into falling prices
🪙 What the Market’s Whispering:
- Positioning is leaning bullish, which means:
- Surprise hawkishness = stronger downside reaction
- Expected dovishness = already partially priced in
🔎 Summary: 6590 is the pivot syrup line. If lost, the stack starts sliding to 6550.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses that may occur from following this information.