Final Grade: A- š “When the option levels work this well, Grandma’s got to tip her hat!” – Grandma
August 20, 2025 End of Day | Coffee With Q – Where Grandma Checks Her Work
“Sometimes the Old Lady Still Gets It Right!”
Well sugar, sit down and let Grandma tell you about today’s action. Remember this morning when I said we were squeezed between that big 6400 wall and 6450 resistance? Well honey, the market decided to pick a side!
THE ACTUAL RESULTS:
- Opened: Around 6395 area
- Closed: 6,395.79
- Action: Choppy decline, stayed below key levels all day
Morning Plan vs. Reality Check
What Grandma Said This Morning:
“6425 is the pivot to watch”
“Failed breakdowns near 6400 favor longs; rejection at 6450 favors shorts”
Key Levels Mapped:
- 6425: Pivot level (11.6M)
- 6420: Support test (7.9M)
- 6410: Recovery zone (6.3M)
- 6400: Major option wall (24.7M)
- 6395: Downside target (6.3M)
What Actually Happened:
ā
Below 6425 Pivot: CONFIRMED – We never got back above this level ā
Below 6420 Support: CONFIRMED – Stayed under all day
ā
6400 Wall Test: CONFIRMED – Tested the big option wall area ā
6395 Target Hit: CONFIRMED – Closed exactly at this level!
Trade Flow Prediction: “Below 6400: Bears press lower, targeting 6395ā6390ā6385” Result: Hit the first target perfectly! ā
Grandma’s Official Grade: A- š
Now don’t think Grandma’s being easy on herself – here’s the honest scorecard:
What Grandma Got RIGHT (A+ Territory):
Level Identification (A+): Called 6425 as the pivot – we stayed below it all day
Target Accuracy (A+): Hit 6395 target exactly – that’s the #7 highest option positioning level
Direction Call (A+): Said below 6420 = bears in control, and that’s exactly what happened
Option Wall Understanding (A): 6400 wall (24.7M) did provide some support but wasn’t strong enough
What Could Have Been Better (B Territory):
Magnitude Expectation (B): Expected more chop between walls, but market had clearer direction
Jackson Hole Impact (B): Didn’t fully anticipate how Day 1 jitters would affect the breakdown
The Real Story: Option Positioning Worked Perfectly
Morning Position: 6411 (between #1 and #2 option strikes) Evening Position: 6395 (exactly at #7 option strike)
Sugar, when I said “price is likely to move toward high option strikes,” that’s exactly what happened! We went straight to the 6395 level with 6.3M in positioning.
The 6400 Wall: That 24.7M wall did slow things down, but when Jackson Hole jitters hit, even big walls can crack.
What Today REALLY Taught Us
Option Levels Work: Every single level we identified got tested or respected
Jackson Hole Jitters: Day 1 of the symposium created enough nervousness to break support
Between Big Strikes = Tough: Just like the theory said – when you’re between #1 and #2 strikes, trends are hard until something breaks
Student Q’s Performance Report
If you followed the morning plan:
- š EXCELLENT – Avoided longs above 6425 (never triggered)
- š EXCELLENT – Took shorts below 6420 (profitable all day)
- š EXCELLENT – Hit the 6395 target if you held
If you tried to catch the 6400 bounce:
- š¬ LESSON LEARNED – Even big walls can crack during event risk
Tomorrow’s Setup
Now that we’re sitting at 6395 (the #7 option level), tomorrow becomes about:
- Can we bounce back toward 6410-6420?
- Or do we continue to 6390 (#4 level) and 6385 (#8 level)?
- Jackson Hole Day 2 – more speeches coming
Grandma’s Proud Moment
You know what, sweetpea? Sometimes focusing on the simple stuff – like where the big option money is positioned – gives you everything you need to know.
We called the pivot, we called the direction, and we hit the target. That 6395 level wasn’t random – it was the #7 highest option positioning, and that’s exactly where we ended up.
Sure, I expected more chop, but in this business, being right on direction and levels is what counts.
Final Grade: A- š “When the option levels work this well, Grandma’s got to tip her hat!” – Grandma
Battle Status: BEARS WON THE DAY (Below all key levels)
Target Hit: 6395 (exactly as mapped)
Teacher Performance: SOLID FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Tomorrow: Watch 6390 and 6385 if weakness continues
Contact: General.Kat@CoffeeWithQ.org
“Sometimes the simplest analysis – following where the big money sits – is the best analysis!” – Grandma
Watch the Complete Tutorial: Coffee with Q Podcast: Trading Insights with Qamar Zaman
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