Coffee With Q Podcast News
Qamar Zaman (Q)
🔹 Executive Summary:
Following Wednesday’s closing action at 6414.25 (down -0.61%), the S&P 500 futures (ES) enter Thursday with a familiar script: elevator down, panic, failed breakdown, and sharp squeeze—exactly the scenario Grandma warned about. For Thursday, 6410 is the key pivot. Holding above suggests upside back-tests of the recent breakdown; failure points toward deeper support probes.
Expect volatility into Jackson Hole (Friday). Grandma says: trade what’s in front of you, one level at a time.
🌟 Grandma’s Thursday Battle Plan
✅ Long Setups (Grandma’s Pickles)
- 6410–6405: Cleared late Wednesday. Now first support. Watch for flush and recover setups here.
- 6402 – 6394 (Golden Shelf): If flushed and reclaimed, a classic long trigger. Use 6387 low from Wednesday as confirmation.
- 6383 (Cookie Jar): Better entry if it bounces and reclaims 6386 (2:15PM low).
- 6372–74 (Grandma’s Quilt Zone): Strong support zone. If it’s a calm grind into here, you can bid. If a panic flush, wait for reclaim.
- 6362: Wednesday’s session low. Bonus trade if market tags 6353–358, but reclaim must follow.
🧏♀️ Grandma says: “Failed breakdowns = buy the fear. But don’t knife-catch! Wait for the bounce.”
❌ Short Setups (Dusty Doorknobs – Advanced Only)
- 6461: Old attic resistance. If back-tested and rejected, short for experienced traders.
- 6434: First back-test zone above 6420. If price stalls here, could set up short.
- 6372–74 fail: Bearish case kicks in. Ideally market bounces here, then fails – short below the bounce low.
⚡ Q Tip: Breakdown trades are low win rate, high reward. Only for pros. Most trap – stay nimble.
❄️ Macro Backdrop (Thursday)
- Jackson Hole Previews: Fed chair Powell speaks Friday. Expect limited pre-positioning.
- Data Calendar: Jobless Claims (forecast: 230K), Existing Home Sales (expected 5.38M), Bostic speaks @ 7:30 AM ET.
- Tariffs & Trade: US-China stable for now, but India friction could add noise.
- VIX: At ~16.23. Watch for 17+ to signal deeper fear.
⚖️ Options Flow & Levels
- Call Walls: 6469, 6500, 6525, 6533
- Put Clusters: 6380, 6369, 6350, 6343
- OI Pivot: ~6400
🧧 Grandma’s Favorite Strikes: 6380, 6400, 6461, 6500
⬆️ Bullish Scenario
- Hold 6410 (or flush/reclaim 6405/6402)
- Rally targets: 6420 → 6434 → 6455 → 6461
- 6461+ reclaim sets stage for 6474, 6491, 6500+
⬇️ Bearish Scenario
- Lose 6372: opens path to 6362 → 6353 → 6333
- Breakdown trades valid if preceded by bounce/failure
📈 Technical Context
- Wednesday’s Range: High 6408.40 / Low 6343.86
- FVGs: 6352.83–355.22 (still unfilled), 6287.28–6289.37
- Elliott Wave: Suggests 6639 target still in play (Wave 5 extension)
- Seasonality: August weakness still in play, VIX prone to spike
- Valuation Caution: P/E forward at 22.85x (above 90th percentile)
🧵 Grandma’s One-Liner Summary:
“No need to guess. Let price do the talking. Failed breakdowns = A+ trades. Everything else? Let the market earn your trust first.”
Published by: Coffee With Q Podcast News
Disclaimer: This plan is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly.
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