Expiration: Sep 28, 2026
Date: Mon Sep 28, 2026 |
We study SPY and Trade SPX SPDR 500 ZERO DTE Index.
🎯 QZ ALGO CREED — Probability Over Prediction
We don’t forecast. We read positioning — where Market Maker exposure sits, where the walls are, and how MM is priced across strikes. That tells us where price is constrained, not where it’s going.
Structure decides the trade.
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📋 EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD — SPY Mon Sep 28, 2026
| Snapshot | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | 772.04 | Just above the Flip — call-heavy, positive-lean |
| Max Pain | 767 | ~5 below — downside magnet if the Flip breaks |
| Flip | 771.13 | Spot +0.9 above → marginally positive |
| #1 / #2 Absolute | 770 / 773 | 770 call wall below spot; 773 call wall above |
LEVEL LADDER (high → low):
| Dir | Level | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | 780 | Daddy Bull (+22.8M) — big call wall (12.7K OI) |
| 🟢 | 775 | Bull #3 (+20.3M) — call wall |
| 🟢 | 774 | Call battle |
| 🟢 | 773 | Mama Bull (+21M) — call wall |
| ☕ | 772.04 | WE ARE HERE |
| 🟠 | 771.13 | FLIP — hold = positive regime |
| 🟢 | 770 | #1 Abs — big call wall (5.9K) / support (PCR 0.52) |
| 🔵 | 768 | Battle (navy = Plus) |
| 🔵 | 767 | MAX PAIN |
| 🔵 | 765 | Baby Bear (−6.6M) — put support (PCR 2.28) |
| 🔵 ▼ | 763 | Daddy Bear (−9.2M) — put wall |
| 🔵 ▼ | 760 | Mama Bear (−6.8M) |
THE THREE PATHS:
| Path | Trigger → Target |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Bullish | Hold 771.13 Flip → grind to 773 / 775, then 780 |
| ⚪ Neutral | Pin 770–773 above the Flip |
| 🔴 Bearish | Lose the Flip 771.13 → Max Pain 767, then 765 / 763 |
⚡ OPENING NOTE
SPY Spot: 772.04 · Max Pain: 767 · Flip: 771.13. Price bounced back above the Flip (771.13) — a marginally positive regime on a call-heavy board (bulls 2.8:1). Spot is pinned between the 770 #1-Abs call wall just below (support) and the 773 / 775 call walls above (cap), with the big 780 call wall (+22.8M, 12.7K OI) further up as the ceiling. The negatives are modest and below — 765 (−6.6M), 763 (−9.2M put wall), 760 — with Max Pain 767 the downside magnet if the Flip gives. While price holds above 771.13, dips get bought toward 773/775; lose the Flip and the pull is back to Max Pain 767 and the 765/763 put support. Read it with structure — no levels, no trade.
📊 TV VALUES
📌 OI / Levels Note: These are pre-market LEVELS — a positioning snapshot taken before the open. Open Interest and MM exposure shift as the live chain updates through the session, so treat these as the map and the bias, not real-time truth.
SPY String — paste into QZ ALGO Daily Magnets:
775,773,780,772.04,767,771.13,765,760,763,770
SPX String:
7750,7730,7800,7720.4,7670,7711.3,7650,7600,7630,7700
Options Flow — VOLUME (Strike, Calls, Puts):
775, 36K, 4K
773, 45K, 8K
770, 77K, 79K
765, 4K, 39K
763, 1K, 14K
Options Flow — OPEN INTEREST (Strike, Calls, Puts):
775, 5K, 1K
773, 5K, 1K
770, 6K, 3K
765, 2K, 4K
763, 1K, 5K
🌡️ QZ TEMPERATURE
🌡️ SPY — Level then COLOR (Sign):
780 GREEN (Plus)
773 GREEN (Plus)
775 GREEN (Plus)
763 BLUE (Plus)
760 BLUE (Plus)
765 BLUE (Plus)
Navy/blue NET chart → the whole board is (Plus). Green = above zero, BLUE = below zero. The below-zero strikes (763 / 760 / 765) are BLUE (Plus), NOT red. 770 / 774 / 768 / 772 = untagged battles. SIGN IS TRUTH: no bar is red today.
🧭 STRUCTURE CHECK
Market Structure (5 Min):
| Structure | Level | Status |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 772.19 | Rally high (HH near here) |
| Pivot (P) | 766.48 | Well below — price above all pivots |
| Current | ~771.3 | Holding above R2, near R3 |
Q ALGO™ Status: 🟢 UPTREND (HH) — above all pivots, pressing R3
The 5-min tape is a clean uptrend, printing a higher high near 772 (R3 772.19) and holding around 771.3 — above every day-pivot. Hold R2 (770.01) / the Flip 771.13 to keep pressing 773/775; lose the Flip and P (766.48) / Max Pain 767 come into play. (Structure reads ~771.3; the exposure snapshot reads spot 772.04 — aligned, both on the 770–772 pin above the Flip.)
🎯 CONFLUENCE — ABOVE THE FLIP, CALL-WALL GRIND
Spot is just above the Flip on a call-heavy board, pinned between call walls — a positive-lean grind. 770 (#1 Abs, big call wall, 5,897 calls) sits just below spot as support/pin; 773 (+21M) and 775 (+20.3M) are the call walls above (the grind path and cap), with 780 (+22.8M) the big ceiling further up. Positive-lean net keeps it a pin/grind, not a runner. The downside is modest — 765/763 put support and Max Pain 767 — and only matters if the Flip 771.13 breaks. Two gates: the Flip 771.13 (regime) and the 773/775 call walls (the cap). Hold the Flip → grind up into the walls; lose it → rotate down to Max Pain 767.
📊 DECISION TABLE
| Level | What It Is | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 780 | 🎯 Daddy Bull (+22.8M) — big call wall | Upside ceiling |
| 775 | 🎯 Bull #3 (+20.3M) — call wall | Grind target / cap |
| 773 | 🎯 Mama Bull (+21M) — call wall | First cap above spot |
| 772.04 | ☕ WE ARE HERE (Spot) | On the pin |
| 771.13 | 🟠 FLIP | Hold = positive regime |
| 770 | 🎯 #1 Abs — big call wall / support | Pin support |
| 768 | 🔵 Battle | Chop |
| 767 | 🔵 MAX PAIN | Downside magnet if Flip breaks |
| 765 | 🔵 Baby Bear (−6.6M) — put support | Support |
| 763 | 🔵 Daddy Bear (−9.2M) — put wall | Deeper support |
🎯 THREE BEARS / THREE BULLS (by MM Exposure size)
THE THREE BULLS (Positive):
| Bull | Strike | MM Exposure | OI | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 = DADDY | 780 | +22.8M | 12.7K | 31.0K |
| B2 = MAMA | 773 | +21.0M | 5.7K | 53.2K |
| B3 = BABY | 775 | +20.3M | 5.9K | 39.4K |
Bulls stack overhead (773–780) as the call-wall ceiling; 770 (#1 Abs, +14.8M) is the call wall/support just under spot.
THE THREE BEARS (Negative):
| Bear | Strike | MM Exposure | OI | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 = DADDY | 763 | −9.2M | 5.5K | 14.9K |
| S2 = MAMA | 760 | −6.8M | 7.4K | 26.6K |
| S3 = BABY | 765 | −6.6M | 6.0K | 42.4K |
🟢 Bull tilt. Bulls ~64.1M vs Bears ~22.6M ≈ 2.8:1 — call walls stack overhead (773–780) and the bears are modest and below (760–765). No heavy downside magnet near spot; the read is a positive-lean grind while above the Flip. (Navy chart — the “bears” read BLUE (Plus); exposure sign vs chart color are different things.)
☕ RANGE ZONE
| Zone | Why |
|---|---|
| 770 — 775 | Spot pins above the Flip between the 770 call wall (support) and the 773/775 call walls (cap). Positive-lean = grind. Hold 771.13 to press 775/780; lose it to rotate to Max Pain 767. |
Commentary: 770 (156K), 768 (107K) and 772 (99K) carry the heaviest volume — the tape is churning the 768–772 pin at and just under spot. Only strikes with a clean call/put split appear in the flow tables.
🔥 MONDAY FACTOR
| Friday (9/25) | Monday (9/28) |
|---|---|
| 765.9 — two-sided cage under the Flip | 772.04 — bounced ~6, above the Flip |
| 🟢 Mild bull ~1.8:1 (balanced) | 🟢 Bull ~2.8:1 (call-heavy) |
| Below Flip, 760/772 cage | Above Flip, call-wall grind |
The bounce reclaimed the Flip. Friday caged under the Flip between the 760 put wall and 772 call wall; the weekend/Monday bounce carried price ~6 up to 772.04, now above the Flip (771.13) on a call-heavy board. The character flips to a positive-lean grind into the 773/775/780 call walls, with the 770 call wall now support beneath. It’s marginal (+0.9 above the Flip), so 771.13 is the line — hold it for the grind, lose it to fall back to Max Pain 767. Structure uptrending, pressing R3.
🎯 Q ALGO™ CHECKLIST — WE DON’T TRADE EMOTIONS, WE LOOK FOR CLUES
| Step | What We Check |
|---|---|
| 1 | LEVELS (from this newsletter) |
| 2 | 15-Min chart |
| 3 | 5-Min chart |
| 4 | 1-Min chart |
| 5 | BANDS |
| 6 | River |
| 7 | Volume Line (Fair Value) |
| 8 | Candle for Entry |
| 9 | Flip Line |
| 10 | Trend Context (Trend Engine) |
| 11 | Pivots |
| 12 | LQ Areas |
| 13 | Entry Candle |
| 14 | Flow |
| 15 | VSA + QVDD |
No Structure = No Trade. Not all checklist items need to align — build your edge based on your own edge. Positive-grind day: respect the Flip 771.13 (hold = grind to 773/775) and the 773/775 call walls (the cap), with 767 the magnet if the Flip breaks. Positive-lean dampens moves — trade the grind/pullbacks with structure, don’t chase into the walls.
✈️ Pilots — read the live chain at the open. These newsletter values are pre-market LEVELS; the options chain is real-time data. Check the live chain around 9:45–10:00 AM ET, once conditions settle, and confirm the walls are still where the letter has them. Levels give you the map and the bias — the live chain is the truth at the open, so weight your reliance accordingly before you trade.
📎 OI / PCR / MM Levels are in today’s QZ VIP Analysis (Doc 2).
⚖️ Disclaimer
This is not investment advisory. I’m not calling trades. I’m teaching you to think. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The IKIGAI Algo and any associated indicators, tools, or educational materials are provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Q Levels and affiliated parties are not registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, or financial planners. By participation, you acknowledge you are solely responsible for your own trading decisions and any resulting gains or losses. No guarantees of profit or specific results are made or implied. All sales are final. Please trade responsibly and only risk capital you can afford to lose. Errors and omissions excepted.
— Q Levels Trading | Coffee With Q ☕