Expiration: Sep 24, 2026
Date: Thu Sep 24, 2026 | Expiration: Sep 24, 2026
We study SPY and Trade SPX SPDR 500 ZERO DTE Index.
🎯 QZ ALGO CREED — Probability Over Prediction
We don’t forecast. We read positioning — where Market Maker exposure sits, where the walls are, and how MM is priced across strikes. That tells us where price is constrained, not where it’s going. Structure decides the trade.
VIP Content - Enter Email to Unlock
This content is exclusive to IKIGAI VIP members. Enter your registered email below to access the full EDGE analysis.
Not a VIP yet? Join IKIGAI Trading Academy
📋 EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD — SPY Thu Sep 24, 2026
| Snapshot | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | 767.42 | Below the Flip — negative regime, but Max Pain pulls up |
| Max Pain | 768 | ~0.6 above — magnet right overhead |
| Flip | 771.57 | Spot −4.2 below → negative regime |
| #1 / #2 Absolute | 771 / 770 | 771 = big call wall above; 770 = near-even battle |
| Bias | 🟢 Mild bull, but under the Flip | Bulls 27.8M vs Bears 15.2M ≈ 1.8:1 |
| Board PCR (OI) | ~0.8 | Call-heavy — the 771 call wall drives it |
LEVEL LADDER (high → low):
| Dir | Level | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 | 778 | Bull #3 (+4.1M) |
| 🟢 | 776 | Bull #2 (+5.2M) |
| 🟠 | 771.57 | FLIP — reclaim = positive regime |
| 🟢 | 771 | #1 Abs + Daddy Bull (+18.5M) — big call wall (8.1K call OI) |
| 🔵 | 770 | Near-even battle (PCR 1.22) (navy = Plus) |
| 🔵 | 769 | Baby Bear (−3.9M) |
| 🔵 | 768 | MAX PAIN — battle (heavy volume) |
| ☕ | 767.42 | WE ARE HERE |
| 🔵 | 767 | #3 Abs + Daddy Bear (−6.4M) — put-lean (PCR 2.19) |
| 🔵 | 765 | Battle / shelf |
| 🔵 ▼ | 763 | Mama Bear (−4.9M) |
THE THREE PATHS:
| Path | Trigger → Target |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Bullish | Reclaim 768 (Max Pain) → 770 / 771 call wall + Flip |
| ⚪ Neutral | Chop 765–768 below the Flip |
| 🔴 Bearish | Lose 765 → 763 |
⚡ OPENING NOTE
SPY Spot: 767.42 · Max Pain: 768 · Flip: 771.57. Price slipped ~6 to 767.42, below the Flip (771.57) in a negative regime — but the near-term pull is up. Max Pain (768) sits right overhead, and the 771 big call wall (#1 Abs, +18.5M, 8.1K calls) is just above as the upside magnet/cap — 771 is also the Flip. The negatives at and below spot are modest (767 −6.4M, 769, 763), so this isn’t a heavy-amplification day, more a pullback that wants to retest the magnets above. The setup: reclaim 768 (Max Pain) and the pull runs toward 770/771; clearing the Flip 771.57 flips the regime positive (dips bought). Below, 765/763 are modest support. Mild bull by exposure (1.8:1), but respect the negative regime until 768/771 reclaims. Read it with structure — no levels, no trade.
📊 TV VALUES
📌 OI / Levels Note: These are pre-market LEVELS — a positioning snapshot taken before the open. Open Interest and MM exposure shift as the live chain updates through the session, so treat these as the map and the bias, not real-time truth.
SPY String — paste into QZ ALGO Daily Magnets:
778,776,771,767.42,768,771.57,769,763,767,771
SPX String:
7780,7760,7710,7674.2,7680,7715.7,7690,7630,7670,7710
Options Flow — VOLUME (Strike, Calls, Puts):
773, 27K, 8K
772, 48K, 16K
771, 60K, 24K
770, 85K, 51K
767, 34K, 74K
Options Flow — OPEN INTEREST (Strike, Calls, Puts):
773, 3K, 2K
772, 1K, 2K
771, 6K, 2K
770, 2K, 2K
767, 1K, 2K
🌡️ QZ TEMPERATURE
🌡️ SPY — Level then COLOR (Sign):
771 GREEN (Plus)
776 GREEN (Plus)
778 GREEN (Plus)
767 BLUE (Plus)
763 BLUE (Plus)
769 BLUE (Plus)
Navy/blue NET chart → the whole board is (Plus). Green = above zero, BLUE = below zero. The below-zero strikes (767 / 763 / 769) are BLUE (Plus), NOT red. 770 / 772 / 768 / 765 / 773 = untagged battles. SIGN IS TRUTH: no bar is red today.
🧭 STRUCTURE CHECK
Market Structure (5 Min):
| Structure | Level | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Pivot (P) | 773.69 | Well above — price fell below all pivots |
| S3 (pivot floor) | 771.12 | Broken — price below |
| Current | ~767.4 | Chopping the lows after the drop |
Q ALGO™ Status: 🔴 DOWNTREND → CHOP — fell below all pivots, basing ~767
Price dropped from the 773–775 area (LH) through every pivot to a low near 766 and is chopping ~767.4, below S3 (771.12) and below the Flip. Reclaim 768 (Max Pain) to start the rotation up toward 770/771; lose 765 and the drift extends to 763. (Structure reads ~767.4; the exposure snapshot reads spot 767.42 — aligned, both basing at the lows.)
🎯 CONFLUENCE — BELOW THE FLIP, MAGNETS PULL UP
Spot is below the Flip in a mild negative regime, but the heavy positioning sits overhead and pulls up. The 771 call wall (#1 Abs, +18.5M, 8.1K calls) is the dominant level — a magnet/cap just above, doubling as the Flip; Max Pain 768 is right over spot as the nearer pull; 770 is a near-even battle between them. The negatives at/below spot are small (767 −6.4M, 769, 763) — not a strong downside magnet, so downside is more drift than flush. The read: a pullback that wants to retest 768 → 770/771, capped by the call wall; only a loss of 765 hands it lower to 763. Two gates: 768 (Max Pain) to start the rotation, 771.57 (Flip) to flip the regime positive.
📊 DECISION TABLE
| Level | What It Is | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 778 / 776 | 🎯 Bulls (+4.1 / +5.2M) | Thin magnets above |
| 771.57 | 🟠 FLIP | Reclaim = positive regime |
| 771 | 🎯 #1 Abs + Daddy Bull (+18.5M) — call wall | Upside magnet / cap |
| 770 | 🔵 Near-even battle (PCR 1.22) | Chop |
| 769 | 🔵 Baby Bear (−3.9M) | Overhead |
| 768 | 🔵 MAX PAIN — battle | Reclaim = rotate up |
| 767.42 | ☕ WE ARE HERE (Spot) | Basing at the lows |
| 767 | 🔵 #3 Abs + Daddy Bear (−6.4M) — put-lean | Support at spot |
| 765 | 🔵 Battle / shelf | Lose = 763 |
| 763 | 🔵 Mama Bear (−4.9M) | Downside drift target |
🎯 THREE BEARS / THREE BULLS (by MM Exposure size)
THE THREE BULLS (Positive):
| Bull | Strike | MM Exposure | OI | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 = DADDY | 771 | +18.5M | 8.1K | 84.1K |
| B2 = MAMA | 776 | +5.2M | 4.5K | 14.3K |
| B3 = BABY | 778 | +4.1M | 5.7K | 6.3K |
B1 (771) dwarfs the bulls — the big call wall / magnet overhead at the Flip; B2/B3 are thin and far above.
THE THREE BEARS (Negative):
| Bear | Strike | MM Exposure | OI | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 = DADDY | 767 | −6.4M | 2.7K | 108.0K |
| S2 = MAMA | 763 | −4.9M | 2.7K | 29.4K |
| S3 = BABY | 769 | −3.9M | 2.3K | 122.7K |
🟢 Mild bull by exposure, price under the Flip. Bulls ~27.8M vs Bears ~15.2M ≈ 1.8:1 — but the bull weight is one strike (771, overhead) while spot sits below it in the small negative cluster (767/769). The bears are modest (−6.4M max), so downside is drift not flush. (Navy chart — the “bears” read BLUE (Plus); exposure sign vs chart color are different things.)
☕ RANGE ZONE
| Zone | Why |
|---|---|
| 765 — 771 | Spot bases below the Flip between the 765/767 put-lean shelf and the 771 call wall (with Max Pain 768 the nearer pull). Reclaim 768 to rotate toward 770/771; lose 765 to drift to 763. |
Commentary: 768 (154K), 770 (135K), 769 (123K) and 767 (108K) all carry heavy two-sided volume — the whole tape is churning in the 767–771 band. Only strikes with a clean call/put split appear in the flow tables.
🔥 THURSDAY FACTOR
| Wednesday (9/23) | Thursday (9/24) |
|---|---|
| 773.55 — battle hinge, just above the Flip | 767.42 — fell ~6, below the Flip |
| 🟢 Mild bull ~2.1:1 (above Flip) | 🟢 Mild bull ~1.8:1 (below Flip) |
| Hinge on 771.81 | Pullback; Max Pain 768 / 771 wall pull up |
The hinge broke down. Wednesday sat on the 771.81 hinge just above the Flip; Thursday lost it and fell ~6 to 767.42, now below the Flip (771.57) and below all pivots. But the positioning didn’t turn heavy-bear — the bulls still own the overhead (771 call wall, +18.5M) and Max Pain (768) is right above, so this reads as a pullback into support that wants to retest the magnets, not a flush. Reclaim 768 → 770/771; lose 765 → 763. Structure basing at the lows.
🎯 Q ALGO™ CHECKLIST — WE DON’T TRADE EMOTIONS, WE LOOK FOR CLUES
| Step | What We Check |
|---|---|
| 1 | LEVELS (from this newsletter) |
| 2 | 15-Min chart |
| 3 | 5-Min chart |
| 4 | 1-Min chart |
| 5 | BANDS |
| 6 | River |
| 7 | Volume Line (Fair Value) |
| 8 | Candle for Entry |
| 9 | Flip Line |
| 10 | Trend Context (Trend Engine) |
| 11 | Pivots |
| 12 | LQ Areas |
| 13 | Entry Candle |
| 14 | Flow |
| 15 | VSA + QVDD |
No Structure = No Trade. Not all checklist items need to align — build your edge based on your own edge. Pullback day below the Flip: respect 768 (Max Pain — reclaim to rotate up) and the 771 call wall/Flip above, with 765/763 the modest support below. Mild negatives = drift not flush; trade the rotation with structure, don’t chase the middle.
✈️ Pilots — read the live chain at the open. These newsletter values are pre-market LEVELS; the options chain is real-time data. Check the live chain around 9:45–10:00 AM ET, once conditions settle, and confirm the walls are still where the letter has them. Levels give you the map and the bias — the live chain is the truth at the open, so weight your reliance accordingly before you trade.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This is not investment advisory. I’m not calling trades. I’m teaching you to think. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The IKIGAI Algo and any associated indicators, tools, or educational materials are provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Q Levels and affiliated parties are not registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, or financial planners. By participation, you acknowledge you are solely responsible for your own trading decisions and any resulting gains or losses. No guarantees of profit or specific results are made or implied. All sales are final. Please trade responsibly and only risk capital you can afford to lose. Errors and omissions excepted.
— Q Levels Trading | Coffee With Q ☕